Graham Allison, a prominent political scientist and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, has cautioned that while war between the United States and China is not inevitable, it remains a significant possibility. Speaking at the Harvard College China Forum, Allison emphasized that the deep interdependence between the two nations in areas such as the economy and climate change could serve as a deterrent to conflict.
Allison is renowned for introducing the concept of the “Thucydides Trap,” which suggests that when a rising power challenges an established hegemon, the likelihood of war increases. This framework has been influential in analyzing U.S.-China relations, with Chinese leaders, including President Xi Jinping, acknowledging its relevance while asserting that conflict is not predetermined.
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Context & Background
The “Thucydides Trap” is a term coined by Graham Allison to describe the historical pattern where a rising power threatens to displace an established one, often leading to conflict. This concept is derived from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ analysis of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. In the context of U.S.-China relations, the theory suggests that China’s rapid ascent as a global power could challenge the existing U.S.-led international order, increasing the risk of confrontation.
Recent developments have intensified concerns about potential conflict. The United States has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions. Additionally, strategic competition in areas such as technology, military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, and differing approaches to global governance contribute to the complex dynamics between the two nations.
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Graham Allison
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University and a leading analyst of national security with special interests in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making. He is known for developing the “Thucydides Trap” concept.
Thucydides Trap
The “Thucydides Trap” is a term describing the tendency towards war when a rising power threatens to displace an existing great power. It is based on Thucydides’ observation of the Peloponnesian War.
U.S.-China Relations
The bilateral relationship between the United States and China, encompassing economic, political, and military dimensions, and characterized by both cooperation and competition.
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